Guide to every Week 10 NFL game: Picks, bold predictions, more


The Week 10 NFL slate is stacked with great matchups. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the keys to every game, a bold prediction for each matchup and final score predictions.

Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a stat to know for each game, and the Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a matchup rating (on a scale of 1 to 100) and a game projection. ESPN Fantasy‘s Kyle Soppe and ESPN Chalk‘s Mackenzie Kraemer hand out helpful nuggets as well. It’s all here to help get you ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.

Let’s get into the full Week 10 schedule, including a battle atop the NFC West on Monday night.

Jump to a matchup:

Thursday: OAK 26, LAC 24

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 72.0 | Spread: KC -6 (48)

What to watch for: The Chiefs’ run defense is subpar (139 yards against per game), which is perfect for the run-oriented offensive identity the Titans say they want to have. Derrick Henry got only 13 carries last weekend in a loss to Carolina, another team that has struggled to stop the run this season. It will be imperative for Tennessee to get Henry touches to keep the ball away from the Kansas City offense as much as possible. — Turron Davenport

Bold prediction: The Chiefs will hold the Titans to fewer than 100 rushing yards and less than 4.0 yards per carry for the third time in four games. Kansas City is improving defensively to the point that Tennessee’s Henry won’t be much of a factor. — Adam Teicher

Stat to know: Since making a quarterback switch from Marcus Mariota to Ryan Tannehill, the Titans’ offense has averaged 5.7 yards per play compared to 4.8 yards per play before the change under center.

What to know for fantasy: When a running back gets at least 14 carries against the Chiefs this season, he averages 109.4 rushing yards. Henry is averaging 18.2 carries per game this season. See Week 10 rankings.

Betting nugget: Patrick Mahomes is 9-3-1 against the spread (ATS) on the road in his career, and the over is 10-3 in those games. Read more.

Teicher’s pick: Chiefs 30, Titans 20
Davenport’s pick: Chiefs 28, Titans 20
FPI prediction: KC, 59.1% (by an average of 3.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: With or without Mahomes, Chiefs get big plays in pass gameMahomes sees increased workload in practiceTime for Titans to recommit to bread-and-butter running game

1 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating: 60.7 | Spread: NO -14 (51)

What to watch for: The Saints are rolling with six consecutive wins, while Atlanta is off the rails with six consecutive losses. It’s hard to imagine the Falcons throwing Drew Brees off his game, since they rank last in the NFL with seven sacks, four takeaways and an opponents’ Total QBR of 66.6. — Mike Triplett

Bold prediction: Deion Jones, a New Orleans native, will pick off Brees for the fourth time in five games and for the third time in his hometown. — Vaughn McClure

Stat to know: Brees is 2-0 with an 86.3 QBR in his past two games against the Falcons, throwing seven touchdowns and just one interception. The Saints averaged 37 points in those games.

What to know for fantasy: The Saints are allowing the sixth-most yards per tight end target this season, and Austin Hooper ranks second among qualified TEs in yards per target this season. See Week 10 rankings.

Betting nugget: New Orleans has covered in six straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL. Meanwhile, Atlanta is 7-17 ATS over the past two seasons, the worst mark in the NFL (2-6 ATS this season, tied for worst in the NFL). Read more.

McClure’s pick: Saints 35, Falcons 21
Triplett’s pick: Saints 33, Falcons 23
FPI prediction: NO, 77.0% (by an average of 9.9 points)

Matchup must-reads: Saints’ passing game can’t rely solely on ThomasFalcons have nothing to lose in coaching-staff shake-upBrees is back with one of NFL’s best OT tandems

1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 48.1 | Spread: CHI -2.5 (41.5)

What to watch for: How will each of the offenses execute? The Bears average 266.8 yards per game (29th in the NFL) and 4.5 per play (30th), but Chicago’s defense gives up an average of only 18 points (sixth). Detroit is the exact opposite. The Lions’ offense is fifth in yards per game and seventh in yards per play, but they have the league’s 31st-ranked defense. Something has to give on Sunday. — Jeff Dickerson

Bold prediction: Matthew Stafford puts up his fourth consecutive 300-yard game with three touchdowns, continuing a low-key MVP-level season most won’t pay attention to because Detroit’s defense continues to struggle. — Michael Rothstein

Stat to know: Chicago running back David Montgomery has 223 scrimmage yards and three scrimmage touchdowns on 48 touches over the past two games. He began the season with just 316 scrimmage yards and two scrimmage touchdowns on 82 touches in his first six games.

What to know for fantasy: Stafford ranks third in fantasy points per pass attempt this season (behind only Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson), but his point total has declined in three consecutive games against the Bears. See Week 10 rankings.

Betting nugget: Detroit has failed to cover three straight games, and Chicago has failed to cover four straight. In the past 20 years, the team with the better season ATS record is 23-4 ATS in matchups in which both teams enter the game with at least three-game losing streaks ATS. So far this season, Detroit is 4-4 ATS and Chicago is 2-6. Read more.



Victor Cruz and Rob Ninkovich both expect the Lions to have no problem with the struggling Bears.

Rothstein’s pick: Lions 28, Bears 17
Dickerson’s pick: Lions 20, Bears 19
FPI prediction: CHI, 60.1% (by an average of 3.5 points)

Matchup must-reads: QB Trubisky wants Halas Hall TVs off to shield criticismThe ‘pieces to the puzzle’ of Detroit’s defense seem all jumbled up

1 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating: 38.7 | Spread: TB -4.5 (52)

What to watch for: The Bucs’ defense surrendered 399 total yards last weekend to Russell Wilson, including 378 passing. This weekend, it faces Kyler Murray, whom Bucs coach Bruce Arians called “a real fast Russell Wilson.” But the Cardinals haven’t fared much better on defense, either, and they’ll face the league’s only pair of 700-plus-yard receivers in Mike Evans (842 yards) and Chris Godwin (766 yards). — Jenna Laine

Bold prediction: Kenyan Drake and David Johnson will each run for at least 75 yards and a touchdown as the Cardinals figure out that they have one of the best two-headed running back situations in the NFL. — Josh Weinfuss

Stat to know: Per Elias Sports Bureau research, Murray has thrown 172 consecutive passes without an interception, the third-longest streak by a rookie in NFL history (176 by Derek Carr in 2014 and 176 by Dak Prescott in 2016).

What to know for fantasy: This one features two of the four worst defenses in terms of limiting fantasy QB production and two quarterbacks who have not one but two games of 25-plus points this season. See Week 10 rankings.

Betting nugget: Jameis Winston is 4-11 ATS and 7-8 straight up as a favorite in his career. And he is 1-7 ATS and 3-5 straight up as a favorite of at least three points. Read more.

Weinfuss’ pick: Buccaneers 42, Cardinals 31
Laine’s pick: Buccaneers 31, Cardinals 21
FPI prediction: TB, 71.8% (by an average of 7.8 points)

Matchup must-reads: Why Arians ‘failed at retirement’ and returned to coachingRebuild or reload? Bucs must decide on QB Winston’s future firstRB Johnson says he’s ‘definitely playing’ vs. Bucs

1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 32.2 | Spread: BAL -10.5 (44.5)

What to watch for: Bengals rookie quarterback Ryan Finley will make his NFL debut. But all eyes will be on the Baltimore offense. The division-leading Ravens have the best rushing attack in the league, and Cincinnati has the worst rushing defense. — Ben Baby

Bold prediction: The Ravens will run for 360 yards, the highest total for any team this decade. How’s that for bold? Baltimore leads the NFL in rushing and gained 269 yards on the ground against Cincinnati earlier this season. The Bengals have allowed 1,421 yards rushing, over 200 more than any other team in the league. — Jamison Hensley

Stat to know: Speaking of the Ravens’ run game, their 1,639 rushing yards are the most by any team through eight games since the 2006 Falcons (1,641). The most through nine games since the 1970 merger is 1,958 by the 1975 Bills.

What to know for fantasy: Ravens receiver Marquise Brown ranks 16th in yards per catch this season (minimum 20 receptions), and the Bengals are allowing a league-high 16.9 yards per deep pass attempt. See Week 10 rankings.

Betting nugget: Baltimore is 33-0 all time as a double-digit favorite, the only active franchise to never lose such a game. However, over the past 10 seasons, Baltimore is just 3-10 ATS in those games (0-2 this season). Read more.

Hensley’s pick: Ravens 26, Bengals 10
Baby’s pick: Ravens 24, Bengals 14
FPI prediction: BAL, 76.4% (by an average of 9.7 points)

Matchup must-reads: It’s a trap! Ravens must overcome biggest letdown game in NFL historyBengals WR Green has setback, out indefinitely

1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 27.8 | Spread: CLE -2.5 (40.5)

What to watch for: The Bills own the NFL’s top red zone offense, while the Browns have one of the worst. Star wideout Odell Beckham Jr. has only three red zone targets the entire season. After going 1-of-5 in the red zone last weekend, will Cleveland finally be able to get OBJ involved near the end zone? — Jake Trotter

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